US sets the stage for controversial call with China’s Xi

Biden and Xi are due to speak at 9 a.m. ET on Friday, with the United States setting the stage for a stern warning that Chinese companies will pay a steep price if the government in Beijing heeds Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pleas for help. military and economic. The call will see the United States overcome one of its deepest foreign policy fears – risking open confrontation with China while simultaneously facing Russia – in another extraordinary war-triggered geopolitical shake-up. in Ukraine. It also puts Biden in the odd position of seeking tacit cooperation from the nation seen as America’s most powerful rising enemy to suppress his historic Cold War rival from the second half of the 20th century.

Given that China is known for ruthlessly pursuing its own interests and has no interest in bolstering the Western-led world order that Putin is seeking to close down, it seems fanciful that Xi would choose what the US sees as silver lining on the Ukraine Conflict – at least until its own economic self-interest dictates a change of course. And US-China relations are so toxic that many analysts predicted a new cold war in the Pacific between the rivals, before the original version was reignited in Europe with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine at the end of the last month.

The theatrics of a call that will be watched closely around the world cannot be dismissed. Just by holding the conversation and making it widely known in advance, Biden is sending a signal to Putin that his ‘boundless’ friendship forged with Xi in Beijing shortly before the invasion may not be as important. than the Russian leader had hoped. The conversation also gives the impression that Washington sees China as the main world power other than itself – instead of Moscow.

It comes as a surprisingly swift and effective Western and international front has imposed a devastating economic, banking, cultural, sporting and diplomatic boycott on Russia. Any significant help from China for Russia could therefore be extremely valuable to Putin, perhaps allowing him to offset some of his country’s isolation and economic blight and sustain his brutal war in Ukraine longer.

Two US officials told CNN this week that Russia asked China for military support, including drones, as well as economic assistance after the invasion. The United States also informed its allies in Asia and Europe in a diplomatic cable that China had expressed some openness to offering such assistance. Russia and China have denied there were any such requests.

Any promise by Xi not to breach international sanctions against Russia would be seen as a major victory for Biden, although the Chinese may demand concessions from the US for such a move – possibly on tariffs. of the Trump era.

A stark warning for China

Secretary of State Antony Blinken offered a solid outline of the appeal on Thursday, saying that “China will take responsibility for any action it takes in support of Russia’s aggression,” and that the United States ” will not hesitate to impose costs” on China if it does. so.

His comments were a thinly disguised hint that Chinese companies could face secondary sanctions if the government in Beijing offers aid to Moscow. That would be a concern for Xi’s government given the current slowdown in China’s traditionally high growth rates and the economic fallout from the latest Covid-19 surge. The US president could have some influence since Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares on Monday that China was not a party to the conflict and “wanted even less to be affected by the sanctions “, according to the official Xinhua News agency. Agency.

Xi’s government has tried to strike a delicate balance throughout the Ukraine crisis.

He has a clear stake in Putin’s attempt to use the conflict to weaken democracy, the West and the rule of international law. And if the United States gets bogged down for years in Europe, it could frustrate Washington’s goal of pivoting military, intelligence and diplomatic resources to Asia to deal with the wider consequences of the buildup. from China.

But China’s long-term economic interests are also at risk if the war in Ukraine overthrows the global economy. Beijing has therefore sought to create diplomatic common ground, refraining from criticizing Putin but seeking to avoid going to a point of no return with the United States – and its main trading partners in the European Union.

Although China did not formally condemn the invasion, Xi stressed that the situation was “worrying”, that China was “deeply grieved” by the war and would “actively work” to support a peaceful settlement. The comments came during a video call with French and German leaders last week, Xinhua reported.

Beijing also endorsed comments by its ambassador to Ukraine, Fan Xianrong, which were quoted in a press release from the Lviv regional government. “China will never attack Ukraine. We will help it, especially economically,” Fan said in comments that seem inconsistent with possible Chinese military aid to Putin’s war effort.

But in line with a desire to discredit the United States, Chinese media also amplified Russian false propaganda that Washington had funded biological weapons labs in Ukraine. The conspiracies are seen by Washington as a possible precursor to a “false flag” event that Moscow could use as a ruse to deploy such weapons.
China's Promotion of Russian Disinformation Shows Where Its Loyalty Lies
The Biden White House argues that China’s stranglehold in war is unsustainable. The issue appears to have been the subject of tough exchanges on Ukraine during a seven-hour meeting in Rome this week between US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese foreign policy chief Yang Jiechi in Rome. , which the US side describes as “intense”.

Biden’s call on Friday should be equally candid.

“This is an opportunity for President Biden to assess President Xi’s position,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Thursday, promising that her boss would be “outspoken” and “direct.” ” during the call.

What could change China’s mind?

The robust US rhetoric down to the phone call, which almost borders on a rebuke from China, would not seem likely to improve the odds of a successful conversation. Xi, who has taken an increasingly nationalistic and bellicose tone in foreign policy, is unlikely to want to appear to bow to US pressure. The US rhetoric could also reflect the strained nature of most contact between the Biden administration and China so far during the US president’s tenure. And that may be indicative of the White House’s low expectations for success on the call after Sullivan’s reception in Rome.

Beijing shows every sign of trying to keep its options open and avoid engaging beyond its own area of ​​interests.

It was supposed to be Xi Jinping's big year.  Instead, he's dealing with Covid and war

“I think there’s a disconnect in views on what optics are,” said Scott Kennedy, chairman of the board of directors for Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in China. Washington. “Either you’re with Russia or you’re with Ukraine and the rest of the world” is one point of view, Scott said, but “I think China’s point of view is that there is a third way, an unaligned way”.

Yet the longer the war drags on, the more difficult China’s choices may become, and it may be forced to take a tougher stance on Moscow – a stance that could make Xi’s newfound friendship with Putin seem like a strategic error.

In the long term, China has little to gain from a protracted economic crisis caused by the war. Although it has strong trade relations with Russia, the value of its exports to the United States and the European Union is worth several times more in dollars. And China’s growth prospects are intertwined with the US and European economies in a way that gives the West leverage if it were to sanction China for aiding Moscow’s war effort.

Years of rising crude prices could also hurt China’s oil-thirsty manufacturing sector. And the current year is also important for Xi, who is expected to secure a third term in the National Community Party Congress in the fall, cementing his status as one of his country’s most historic leaders alongside Mao Zedong. .

Ukraine’s economic disruptions that are worsening the ripple effects of a new wave of Covid-19, which has seen restrictions imposed in the crucial southern trading city of Shenzhen, could also disrupt Xi’s hopes for a year. smooth politics.

Kennedy suggested several possibilities that could cause Xi to reconsider his current course on Russia. First, if the war starts to go even worse for Putin and threatens his own regime. “They don’t want to back a loser,” Kennedy said of the Chinese. Then, if the hitherto unified Western front against Russia holds — and could turn against China if it seeks to break through the sanctions barricade against Moscow — Xi could avoid a serious confrontation.

Dramatic course changes are unlikely in Biden’s appeal. But if the president is able to push China away from Putin a bit — or make Russia feel like he has — he may be able to claim progress.

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